Almeria vs Valencia

May 22, 2015
By: Nemanja Lazarevic

Despite sitting two points adrift of safety ahead of the final match of the season, Almeria will have a decent chance of staying up if they happen to defeat Valencia on Saturday. However, that will be no easy task given that los Che need a win at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterraneos in order to qualify for the Champions League.

Uphill task for Almeria

Almeria have been bouncing back and forth between Spain’s top two divisions over the last few years and they escaped relegation to Segunda by a single point last term. But, having picked up mere 32 points from 37 matches this term, they are quite fortunate to still have a chance of beating the drop, although if that is to happen, they will have to record the first win over a top 7 side of the season. Los Rojiblancos did show glimpses of quality when facing relegation rivals this season, but they were utterly disappointing in matches against Spain’s top sides, having taken just one point from 13 matches against top 7 teams. This is the main reason why I don’t really believe they can prevent Valencia from winning at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterraneos on Saturday despite the fact that the hosts are fighting for their lives. Almeria have been pretty disappointing of late, losing to Real Madrid, Malaga and Sevilla while sharing spoils with Celta Vigo, but I don’t see how they are going to match very good los Che on the final day of the season.

Ximo Navarro is set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines, while Angel Trujillo and Fran Velez are out of contention as well.

Job not done yet

In 17 years since the format of the Champions League has changed, never have a team in any of Europe’s top five leagues finished on 73 points or more and failed to qualify for the Europe’s elite competition, but there is a first time for everything. The amazing performances of both Valencia and Sevilla mean that one of the two sides will miss out on the Champions League berth despite taking at least 73 points. The good news for Nuno Espirito Santo and his charges is that los Che are the masters of their own destiny as all they need to do is defeat Almeria on the road and a top 4 finish will be guaranteed. And while their next opponents need a win in order to keep their survival hopes alive, the huge gap in class between the two sides is enough to suggest that Valencia will record a much needed win if they play anywhere close to their potential. Los Che have suffered a minor dip in form of late, sharing spoils with Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo, while the 2-2 draw with Real at the Bernabeu cannot exactly be considered an under-par result. Nevertheless, Valencia have more then enough quality to win this game and we are backing them to deliver.

Andre Gomes is set to miss next three months through a muscle injury, whereas Rodrigo Moreno remains suspended.

Verdict

Huge motivation to avoid the drop alone is unlikely to prove enough for Almeria to claim maximum points, and their wretched record against top 7 sides have got to be taken into consideration. Valencia missed one opportunity to secure the final Champions League berth, but I am backing them to make things right this weekend.

Top pick: Away win   1.73 (8/11) @ SkyBet

Alternative pick 1: Valencia/Valencia   2.55 (14/9) @ BetVictor

Alternative pick 2: Both teams to score   1.53 (8/15) @ 888sport

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