In spite of the 3-1 defeat to Borussia M’gladbach, Mainz are still masters of their own destiny as any win over Hamburg SV would see them clinch the final Europa League berth in Bundesliga. Meanwhile, the Red Shorts will get relegated if they fail to win at Coface Arena and either Nurnberg or Braunschweig win their weekend fixtures.

Impressive on home soil

While Thomas Tuchel only took over the reigns at Coface Arena after the club secured promotion to the Bundesliga, it was the talented coach who helped Mainz establish themselves as a top table side in Germany’s elite division. The fifth-place finish in the 2010/2011 season was followed by two mid table finishes, but the Carnival club are again enjoying a very successful campaign. Mainz have climbed to seventh in the Bundesliga standings and if they remain there after Saturday’s games, the club will have qualified for the Europa League. But, with their rivals Augsburg hosting out-of-sorts Nurnberg, Thomas Tuchel’s charges will have to beat Hamburg if they want to play European football. The good news is that might not prove to be a difficult task after all, and not only because the Red Shorts are out of confidence following the run of four straight defeats. It is Mainz’s impressive home form that makes them favourites to claim maximum points, with the Coface Arena outfit winning six of last eight home games, while sharing spoils with Hertha and losing to Bayern Munich.

Key attacker Nicolai Muller returns to the starting line-up, leaving full-back Joo-Ho Park as the only unavailable player at the moment.

Can Hamburg avoid the drop?

Even if Hamburg have been on a major downtrend over the last few years, chances are not even the most pessimistic of fans could have predicted the Red Shorts will be fighting for their lives this season. However, even if this team clearly have more than enough quality to survive, the Imtech Arena outfit sank deeper and deeper as the season unfolded and they now find themselves in a very difficult position. Hamburg will be involved in the relegation play-offs at best, but they could also be automatically relegated if at least one of Nurnberg and Braunschweig win their weekend game and HSV do not win at Mainz. But, even with van der Vaart and Lasogga back to the side, the visitors have little reason for optimism ahead of the clash with one of the best home teams in the elite division. Hamburg are not only without confidence after losing their last four league games, but they have lost all seven away matches in the league since the turn of the year. This is enough to suggest they will have to produce a perfect performance in order to avoid defeat in Mainz, but that does not look possible at the moment.

Denis Diekmeier is doubtful with a muscle strain, but Pierre-Michel Lasogga should start even if he is not fully fit.

Verdict

Even if Mainz need a win in order to qualify for Europe, the pressure will be on Hamburg, who are in very poor spirits and in desperate need of victory. And having beaten much stronger sides than HSV at their Coface Arena, Thomas Tuchel’s charges can be trusted to extend the amazing home run and secure Europa League qualification.

Top pick: Home win   1.85 (17/20) @ William Hill

Alternative pick 1: Both teams to score   1.50 (1/2) @ Betfair

Alternative pick 2: Home win + both teams to score   3.10 (21/10) @ Coral